We are getting closer and closer to the end of the year and it’s going to be crowded when it comes to the movies competing for the various categories at the 97th Academy Awards. We typically like to look at a few industry short lists to see how things are trending, and as we head into the final months of the year, some films have been on the list almost all year while others (looking at you Joker) are disappearing altogether.
Here are the front-runners as of mid-November 2024. Please note that some of these films have not come out yet and many people across the country and the globe may not get a chance to see these until early 2025. Also, all categories are listed in alphabetical order but we’ve put ** next to the supposed “favorites” right now. We won’t go through every single category, just the main ones.
The big winners this cycle are Anora, Wicked and Gladiator II – all of which are hitting most theaters in November – so that could change. The big drops are Saturday Night and I’m Still Here.
Best Picture
Tier 1
Anora **
Blitz
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Gladiator II
The Room Next Door
Wicked (▲)
Tier 2
A Real Pain
Challengers
I’m Still Here
The Piano Lesson
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Saturday Night (▼)
September 5
Sing Sing
The Wild Robot
Films like Anora, Blitz, Dune and Emilia Perez have been on the short list for a while, but Wicked is starting to get some hype as we near it’s release date. Sing Sing has started disappearing from some lists as we get closer to the end of the year but still a strong candidate. Saturday Night has also started slipping a bit
Anora and Emilia Perez are the favorites right now with Conclave not far behind. Expect all three of those films to compete for all of the major categories.
Best Director
Favorites
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Edward Berger (Conclave) (▲)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Ridley Scott (Gladiator II) **
In Consideration
Pedro Almodovar (The Room Next Door)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
Steve McQueen (Blitz)
Walter Salles (I’m Still Here) (▼)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Jason Reitman (Saturday Night)
Ridley Scott, Sean Baker and Jacques Audiard seem to be the favorites here with Brady Corbet right behind.
Best Actor
Favorites
Adrian Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Daniel Craig (Queer) (▲)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) **
Paul Mescal (Gladiator II)
In Consideration
John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
Sebastian Stan (A Different Man OR The Apprentice)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie a Deux)
Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time)
Ralph Fiennes is the favorite right now on many short lists, but Colman Domingo and Adrian Brody are right there too. Paul Mescal is one to watch here if Gladiator takes off.
Best Actress
Favorites
Angelina Jolie (Maria)
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) (▲)
Mikey Madison (Anora) **
Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
In Consideration
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
June Squibb (Thelma)
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) (▼)
Angelina Jolie and Mikey Madison seem to be the favorites here with Karla Sofia Gascon and Tilda Swinton knocking at the door. Anora seems to be getting more love in general which could help Mikey Madison. Nicole Kidman is getting a bit of a push in advance of Babygirl coming out.
Best Supporting Actor
Favorites
Yura Borisov (Anora) (▲)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) (▲)
Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) **
In Consideration
Samuel L Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) (▼)
John Magaro (September 5) (▲)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
John Turturro (The Room Next Door) (▼)
Clarence Maclin was a favorite for a while, but Denzel Washington is getting more and more push as we get closer to Gladiator and is seen as the favorite now along with Kieran Culkin.
Best Supporting Actress
Favorites
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
Ariana Grande (Wicked) (▲▲)
Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) **
In Consideration
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Leonie Benesch (September 5) (▲)
Carrie Coon (His Three Daughters)
Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez) (▼)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Zoe Saldana is hands down the favorite right now in this category. She’ll have a chance to go up against Selena Gomez from the same film, but watch out for Ariana Grande who is getting a massive push from Universal.
Best Original Screenplay
Favorites
A Real Pain (▲)
Anora **
The Brutalist
The Seed of a Sacred Fig
September 5
In Consideration
Blitz
Challengers
Didi
Hard Truths
Saturday Night (▼)
The Substance
Anora is the consensus favorite here with The Brutalist in second. The sneaky contender here is A Real Pain.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Favorites
A Complete Unknown (▲)
Conclave **
Emilia Perez
The Room Next Door
Sing Sing (▲)
In Consideration
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
I’m Still Here (▼)
Inside Out 2
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson (▼)
Queer
The Wild Robot
Emilia Perez and Conclave seem to be the favorites here right now, but Sing Sing could creep up in to the top 5 and make some noise.
