We’ve only got three months left this year and it’s going to be crowded when it comes to the movies competing for the various categories at the 97th Academy Awards. We typically like to look at a few industry short lists to see how things are trending, and as we head into the final quarter of the year, some films have been on the list almost all year while others (looking at you Joker) are disappearing altogether.
Here are the front-runners as of October 2024. Please note that many of these films have not come out yet and many people across the country and the globe may not get a chance to see these until early 2025. Also, all categories are listed in alphabetical order. We won’t go through every single category, just the main ones.
Best Picture
Tier 1
Anora
Blitz
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Gladiator II
The Room Next Door
Saturday Night
Tier 2
A Real Pain
Challengers
I’m Still Here
The Piano Lesson
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
September 5
Sing Sing
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Films like Anora, Blitz, Dune and Emilia Perez have been on the short list for a while, but The Room Next Door and Saturday Night are getting a lot of play across many categories. Sing Sing has started disappearing from some lists as we get closer to the end of the year but still a strong candidate. Wicked still appears a little bit, but we aren’t leaning in that direction when it comes to Best Picture.
Anora and Emilia Perez are the favorites right now with Conclave not far behind. Expect all three of those films to compete for all of the major categories.
Best Director
Favorites
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Walter Salles (I’m Still Here)
Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
In Consideration
Pedro Almodovar (The Room Next Door)
Edward Berger (Conclave)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
Steve McQueen (Blitz)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Jason Reitman (Saturday Night)
Sean Baker and Jacques Audiard seem to be the favorites here with Brady Corbet right behind.
I’m Still Here is a wild card that is starting to creep into some projections. The official Brazilian entry for Best International Film, it starts Fernanda Torres and Fernanda Montenegro as Eunice Paiva, a mother and activist searching for her missing husband, congressman Rubens Paiva, during the Brazilian Military Dictatorship. It’s creeping into Best Picture Territory, but also here for Salles
Best Actor
Favorites
Adrian Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Paul Mescal (Gladiator II)
In Consideration
Daniel Craig (Queer)
John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
Sebastian Stan (A Different Man OR The Apprentice)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie a Deux)
Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time)
Ralph Fiennes is the favorite right now on many short lists, but Colman Domino and Paul Mescal are right there too.
Best Actress
Favorites
Angelina Jolie (Maria)
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
In Consideration
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
June Squibb (Thelma)
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Angelina Jolie and Mikey Madison seem to be the favorites here with Karla Sofia Gascon and Tilda Swinton knocking at the door. Anora seems to be getting more love in general which could help Mikey Madison.
Best Supporting Actor
Favorites
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
John Turturro (The Room Next Door)
Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
In Consideration
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
Samuel L Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Clarence Maclin was a favorite for a while, but Denzel Washington is getting more and more push as we get closer to Gladiator and is seen as the favorite now along with Kieran Culkin.
Best Supporting Actress
Favorites
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez)
Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
In Consideration
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Carrie Coon (His Three Daughters)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
Joan Chen (Didi)
Zoe Saldana is hands down the favorite right now in this category. At first it looked like the push may be for her as the lead actress, but now in supporting she’ll be likely going up against Selena Gomez from the same movie.
Best Original Screenplay
Favorites
Anora
The Brutalist
Saturday Night
The Seed of a Sacred Fig
September 5
In Consideration
A Real Pain
Blitz
Hard Truths
His Three Daughters
Didi
Challengers
The Substance
Anora is the consensus favorite here with The Brutalist in second. The sneaky contender here is A Real Pain.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Favorites
Conclave
Emilia Perez
I’m Still Here
The Piano Lesson
The Room Next Door
In Consideration
Sing Sing
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
A Complete Unknown
Inside Out 2
Gladiator II
The Wild Robot
Queer
Emilia Perez and Conclave seem to be the favorites here right now, but Sing Sing could creep up in to the top 5 and make some noise.
